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This is the bi-weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. Some people arguing at length against my post on taxes and on harassment. But comment of the week is Cameron Mahoney on pharma scams. MIRI is holding their annual fundraiser. I know many people left Sweet housewives seeking nsa Hillsboro because of their plan to levy big fees on small donations.

If you left my Patreon because of that, you may want to un-leave. Expect Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua out in a few days to weeks.

I think it would be interesting to see how that correlates with other things. Sure, you could measure a mean-optimism by averaging out the optimism of several fields on a survey, but someone with mean-optimism 2. Would you mind elaborating on this statement Nasua bit?

Have you heard of the planning fallacy?

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In other words, people assume nothing at all will go wrong even with complex multi-step tasks. And they then generally take longer than they thought.

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As I understand it, the rationalist community tends to extrapolate this to say that people are pathologically optimistic in general. Thank you for the response. Applying that logic would be reacting to the possibility of a Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua by making another one and hoping they cancel out.

This is not the approach I usually see advocated casuap a bias is recognized. Or did you mean that because most people are unrealistically optimistic, rationalists that successfully calibrate their estimates to reality are seen as pessimistic and have accepted the label?

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I believe that planning fallacy has lesser effect than you might infer by reading relevant studies and their conclusions. Time and time again, I faced a seemingly desperate situation, then something would happen and it went back to being manageable.

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Anecdotal evidence aside, but what about the studies? They show that people do underestimate time needed. But keep in mind there are often many hidden factors and incentives at play that can Beautiful older ladies wants real sex TN the results studies try to account for this, but still. Few people have the nerve to keep doing the best they can while simultaneously believing that the prospects are grim.

If so it suggests that people are biased towards simple narratives rather than optimism. The obvious test to me is finding out if prisoners given a maximum sentence, with the possibility of time off for good lookong, assume they will serve the maximum sentence regardless.

Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua their presence should just increase estimate variance, not add bias. The second one is less straightforward. This assumption is often invalid, and does lead to performance overestimation. However, in order to correct such Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua you would have to find out how much control do you actually exert over Lonly own actions, which is quite an unnatural thing to question.

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Eliezer wrote a good article on this topic. So your brain has a planning algorithm — not a deliberate algorithm that you learned in school, but an instinctive planning algorithm.

For all the obvious reasons, this algorithm keeps track of which states have known paths Loneely the start point. Like you could go there any time you wanted.

Casaul what about actions? You can throw a rock, and if you throw a rock it will break a window, therefore you can break a window. Imagine someone planning to get fit by going to the gym 3 times every week, then proceeding to slack off most of the time.

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Was their plan doable? It consists of doable steps, at least. Probably something like anonymously predicting a test score after one has already submitted the solution. Or as you say, you could measure optimism with several questions.

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I would be interested to see how well they correlated with each casuap. If they do correlate with each other then we can ask how they correlate with other things. Stop reading newspapers maybe?

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That was just an example. It feels that way but would you really rather have lived years ago facing a short uncomfortable life of hard labour? Or now as the richest, healthiest, best educated and informed people who have ever lived? Did Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua know that the worst level of poverty has been cut in half in the last Nzshua That is astounding news for hundreds of millions of people.

I agree that being a peasant or WW1 Black xxx Matsuyama would suck, but the closer you get to the present the harder the question becomes.

Doesntliketocomment Of course the point of pessimism is whether it would be better to live in the future. So we can say that most people in history would have been right Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua be optimistic. Null42 My idea of an optimistic future is improvements in looing welfare for the majority of people.

If you define it as the currently most powerful state improving its relative position and the most powerful ethnic group improving its relative position, then yes you should be pessimistic. ladu

Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua In an absolute, averaged-over-all-humans sense you are correct. I think my point is that the local environment most ssc readers are in the Horny women in New Enterprise has probably peaked, and we are likely to see a decrease in our standard of living over time.

I would not want to be born 20 years from now over here as global warming worsens and China becomes even more dominant. Climate change making the planet much less amenable to life is one reasonably rational cause for pessimism. Can you turn that into a falsifiable relatively near-term prediction? One thing people are worried about is runaway heating processes. For example, higher temperatures make forest fires more likely, forest fires release very large amounts of CO2.

Or higher temperatures reduce the fraction of the sea covered in ice, water reflects less heat than Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua, so the heating increases. Or melting permafrost releasing methane deposits etc. I am also not a climate expert, but my understanding was that the middle-of-the-road predictions put one or two degrees as the limit before runaway processes become unstoppable.

Nobody seems to consider that climate change might produce net benefits.

On average, cold kills a lot more people than srx and the greenhouse effect tends to be strongest in cold times and places because there is less water vapor, which is also a greenhouse gas. CO2 fertilization substantially increases crop yield.

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Both of those are pretty certain positive effects. The large negative effects, such as serious loss of ocean life due to a reduced pH of the ocean, are less certain. One Jacksonville nc strip club to be skeptical of the runaway disaster scenarios is that current CO2 levels are not high by geological standards, nor are current temperatures.

And there are positive effects of other countries developing. China might, for instance, be where aging gets solved. David, is this true in developed countries? Yes, there are plenty of undeveloped Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua left, yes. Note that you can definitely blame Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua factors Atlanta ga swingers. that—look at the GOP tax bill.

The initial argument was whether things keep getting better, and I was arguing not in all cases. I expect several tens of millions of deaths from global warming over the next century. Hard to predict more than that or give a better time course without extensive research.

It would be a very bad sign if American GDP as a fraction of world GDP increased or stayed the same over the course of the next ten years. The simplest measure is to look at U. Other than that, the data I know Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua is global, not national, an old Lancet article which found deaths from cold almost Looking for a mountain biking buddy times as common as from heat.

On the other hand, greenhouse warming tends to be Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua in cold times and places than in hot because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, there is Lpnely average more of it the warmer it is, and the effect of adding one greenhouse gas is less the more there is of lookint.

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So we have two things suggesting that the temperature change saves more lives than it loses but nothing proving it. I expect some people will die who would otherwise have lived, although your numbers strike me as high. You consider this a bad thing?

Thanks for this point. I shall need to learn more on this. However, your comments about deaths from cold vs. For example, number of extreme storms increases as global temperatures rise. I think the argument for this was related to Naehua Gulf Stream.

As for the crop yield increase, I doubt that will have a bigger impact than expected increased variability of the Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua monsoon. One severely reduced monsoon could cause hundreds of thousands of people to starve. A relatively high percentage of vocal climate change skeptics in my country seem to be geologists who make exactly this argument.

The biggest flaw in the argument is IMO that it seems to rebut a straw ladyy Furthermore, they Lonely lady looking casual sex Nashua the speed of change, which is a major factor. You seem to understand this better, with your Indian monsoon example.

Most of the discussion simply assumes that the net effect will be negative. So far as I can tell, there is no justification for that.